Cassidy Holst, Author at MegaStar Financial

Weekly Mortgage Report – September 19, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 19:54:10 +0000

Mortgage Rates Continue to Fall, Fed Cuts Rates as Anticipated

Mortgage rates continue their downward trajectory, falling another 11 basis points last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released September 19th. As they continue to decline towards the six percent mark, it is reviving purchase and refinance demand for many consumers. While mortgage rates do not directly follow moves by the Federal Reserve, their first cut in over four years will have an impact on the housing market. Declining mortgage rates over the last several weeks indicate this cut was mostly baked in, but rates will likely fall further, sparking more housing activity.

Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. “Application activity was up significantly last week, as market expectations of a rate cut from the Fed pulled mortgage rates lower.” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications were up 24 percent, more than double last year’s pace, with both conventional and government activity jumping to the fastest pace of refinancing since 2022.” Added Kan, “There was also an increase in purchase applications. Homebuyers are seeing improving affordability conditions, sparked by lower rates and slower home-price growth.”

On Wednesday, The Federal Reserve enacted its first interest rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic, slicing half a percentage point off benchmark rates to head off a slowdown in the labor market. Outside of the emergency rate reductions during Covid, the last time the FOMC cut by half a point was in 2008 during the global financial crisis. The decision lowers the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. “We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with this inflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you could take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal,” Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.

Regarding the rate cut, Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, says the FOMC has “signaled that this is the first cut in a series that should bring rates down by about 2 percentage points by the end of 2025. It is also important to note that the FOMC’s estimates of the neutral fed funds rates keeps moving up, and that the committee members see a range of outcomes, from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent as consistent with neutral in the long run. Mortgage rates likely had this cut priced in, and lower mortgage rates, now close to 6 percent, have resulted in much more refinance and some additional purchase activity in recent weeks,” Fratantoni says. “We do expect that if mortgage rates remain near these levels, it will support a stronger than typical fall housing market and suggest that next spring could see a real rebound in activity.”

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Weekly Mortgage Report – September 12, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 18:19:04 +0000

Rates Fall, But Affordability Challenges and Limited Inventory Remain

Mortgage rates fell another 15 basis points last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released September 12th. They have now fallen more than half a percent over the last six weeks and are at their lowest level since February 2023. Rates continue to soften due to incoming economic data that is more sedate. However, despite the improving mortgage rate environment, prospective buyers remain on the sidelines, as they negotiate a combination of high house prices and persistent supply shortages.

Mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 6, 2024. “Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to the lowest rate since February 2023. Treasury yields have been responding to data showing a picture of cooling inflation, a slowing job market, and the anticipated first rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Added Kan, “Purchase applications increased over the week and are edging closer to last year’s levels. Despite the drop in rates, affordability challenges and other factors such as limited inventory might still be hindering purchase decisions.”

Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but layoffs remain at historically low levels despite two years of elevated interest rates. Jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 230,000 for the week of September 7th, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out some of week-to-week volatility, ticked up by 500, to 230,750. The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by a modest 5,000, remaining at about 1.85 million for the week of August 31st. Weekly filings for unemployment benefits, considered a proxy for layoffs, remain low by historic standards, though they are up from earlier this year. During the first four months of 2024, claims averaged just 213,000 a week, but they started rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, adding to the evidence that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot U.S. job market.

Inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that also showed a key measure higher than expected, setting the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index, increased 0.2% for the month. That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level, and at its lowest level in 3½ years. However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, and the 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%. The slight uptick in core CPI keeps the Fed on defense against inflation, likely negating the probability of a more aggressive interest rate when policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – September 5, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 06 Sep 2024 19:03:25 +0000

Rates hold Steady, Markets Await Friday’s Jobs Numbers for Direction

Mortgage rates remained flat week to week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released September 5th. The markets await the release of the highly anticipated August jobs report. Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates to lower their monthly payments.

Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 30, 2024. “Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate edging down slightly. Purchase applications increased more than 3 percent over the week and are inching closer to last year’s levels,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications were slightly down but continued to show strong annual gains as borrowers with higher rates have been refinancing to lower their monthly payments.

Inflation edged higher in July, according to a measure favored by the Federal Reserve as the central bank prepares to enact its first interest rate reduction in more than four years. The Commerce Department reported Friday that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% on the month and was up 2.5% from the same period a year ago, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates. The report comes with the markets pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, with the only uncertainty being whether the Fed will take the incremental step of lowering benchmark rates by a quarter percentage point or being more aggressive and moving a half-point lower.

The US economy appears to be on the knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. The August jobs report is expected to provide some much-needed clarity as to whether the labor market is slowing gracefully or spiraling quickly as was indicated by the recent weeks’ bleak batch of employment data. “The next set of job numbers released this week will be among the most consequential in a while,” Tuan Nguyen, US economist at RSM US, wrote in commentary issued Wednesday. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. Either outcome, however, could ultimately determine the size of the Fed’s next rate cut.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – August 29, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 30 Aug 2024 18:06:28 +0000

Rates Decrease Again, Fed Signals Interest Rate Cut

Mortgage rates decreased again this week, another 11 basis points from last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released August 29th. With expectations of a Fed rate cut now clear, rates are expected to continue their decline and while potential homebuyers are watching closely, a rebound in purchase activity remains elusive until further declines are seen.

Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2024. “Mortgage rates declined for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.44 percent, the lowest since April 2023. Rates have now come down more than 80 basis points from a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As observed in recent weeks, despite lower rates, purchase applications have not moved much. Prospective homebuyers are staying patient now that rates are moving lower and for-sale inventory has started to increase.”

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits slipped last week, but re-employment opportunities for laid-off workers are becoming scarcer, a sign that the unemployment rate probably remained elevated in August. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Aug. 24^th. While the labor market slowdown positions the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates next month, the data argues against a 50-basis point reduction in borrowing costs. “The soft-landing narrative for the economy remains intact for now,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

At the most recent Fed meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave an unambiguous signal that the long-anticipated U.S. interest rate cut would come next month. At his keynote speech to the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” given that upside risks to inflation have diminished and downside risks to employment have increased. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. “

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Weekly Mortgage Report – August 22, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 23 Aug 2024 18:27:10 +0000

Mortgage Rates Decrease Slightly, Big Downward Revision In Non-Farms Payroll

Mortgage rates decreased 3 basis points from last week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released August 22^nd. Although mortgage rates have stayed relatively flat over the past couple of weeks, softer incoming economic data suggest rates will gently slope downward through the end of the year. Earlier this month, rates plunged and are now lingering just under 6.5 percent, which has not been enough to motivate potential homebuyers. Rates likely will need to decline another percentage point to generate buyer demand.

Mortgage applications decreased 10.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 16, 2024. “Both mortgage rates and mortgage applications have now stabilized after a few weeks of financial market volatility, which led to a quick drop in mortgage rates.” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He added, “Home sales have slowed despite rising inventory levels. Even with lower mortgage rates, potential buyers might be more selective now that there are more options.”

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year. The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Consumer sentiment rebounded in August for the first time in five months. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed that sentiment ticked higher in August. The index reading for the month came in at 67.8, up from 66.4 in July and above the 66.9 economists had expected. It was the highest reading of consumer sentiment since June. The reading on consumer sentiment comes amid a volatile two weeks for the stock market and the overall narrative surrounding the US economy. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report fueled concerns about how rapidly the US labor market is cooling, helping spark a market sell-off.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – August 15, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 18:45:54 +0000

Rates Essentially Unchanged, CPI Breaks Key Psychological Barrier

Mortgage rates increased 2 basis points from last week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released August 15th. While rates increased slightly this week, they remain more than half a percent lower than the same time last year. In October 2023, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nearly hit 8 percent, slamming the brakes on the housing market. Now, the 30-year fixed-rate hovers around 6.5 percent and will likely trend down in the coming months as inflation continues to slow. Lower rates are good news for potential buyers and sellers alike.

Mortgage applications increased 16.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2024. “Rates on both 30- and 15-year fixed rate mortgages decreased for the second consecutive week, and combined with the previous week’s rate moves, spurred another strong week for application activity as borrowers with higher rates took the opportunity to refinance,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall applications increased almost 17 percent to the highest level since January 2023, driven by a 35 percent increase in refinance applications.”

Price hikes slowed more than expected in July, and, for the first time in more than three years, the Consumer Price Index has landed below 3%. Consumer prices rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in July, slowing from June’s 3% annual gain, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report released Wednesday. America’s economy is showing signs of stress, and now that inflation appears under control, the Fed can reduce borrowing costs to try to get job growth booming again. “Breaking the 3% barrier is a key psychological positive,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist of SS Economics.

Consumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase. Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast. “Once again, this was further evidence that the U.S. consumer still has the ability to surprise to the upside,” wrote Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – August 8, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 16:44:12 +0000

Significant Decrease in Mortgage Rates on Weak Economic News

Mortgage rates decreased 26 basis points from last week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released August 8th. This is their lowest level in over a year and is following the likely overreaction to a less than favorable employment report and financial market turbulence for an economy that remains on solid footing. The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move. Additionally, this drop in rates is already providing some existing homeowners the opportunity to refinance, with the refinance share of market mortgage applications reaching nearly 42 percent, the highest since March 2022.

Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024. “Mortgage rates decreased across the board last week and mortgage application volume reached its highest level since January of this year. The 30-year fixed rate fell to its lowest level since May 2023, following doveish communication from the Federal Reserve and a weak jobs report, which added to increased concerns of an economy slowing more rapidly than expected,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result of lower rates, refinance applications increased across all loan types, particularly for VA loans, and were almost 60 percent higher than it was at this time last year and were at its highest level in two years.”

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. First-time filings for jobless benefits came to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. While the top-line number helped allay some fears, the level of continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up to 1.875 million, the highest since Nov. 27, 2021. Jobless claims have been trending higher for much of the year, though still remain relatively tame. The recent uptick has been attributed to disruptions from Hurricane Beryl as well as summer shutdowns at auto plants.

Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, fueling fears of a broader economic slowdown, the Labor Department reported Friday, August 2^nd. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. The labor market had been a pillar of economic strength but has recently shown some trouble signs, and the July payroll increase was well below the average of 215,000 over the past 12 months.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – August 1, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 16:19:30 +0000

Mortgage Rates Continue to Decline, Federal Reserve Likely to Cut Rates In September

Mortgage rates declined to their lowest level since early February, decreasing 5 basis points from last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released August 1st. Expectations of a Fed rate cut coupled with signs of cooling inflation bode well for the market, but apprehension in consumer confidence may prevent an immediate uptick as affordability challenges remain top of mind. Despite this, a recent moderation in home price growth and increases in housing inventory are a welcoming sign for potential homebuyers.

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2024. “Mortgage rates were little changed last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate unchanged,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “In recent weeks, there have been some small bursts of refinance activity, particularly for FHA and VA loans. Last week, VA refi application volume dropped sharply, which drove the aggregate result. Borrowers may be waiting for signs that mortgage rates will drift lower as the Federal Reserve begins to cut short-term rates. Purchase volume also dropped slightly because of ongoing affordability challenges.”

An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.1% on the month and was up 2.5% from a year ago, in line with Dow Jones estimates, the Commerce Department reported Friday July 26h. The year-over-year gain in May was 2.6%, while the monthly measure was unchanged. Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank’s 2% long-range target. “Overall, it’s been a good week for the Fed. The economy appears to be on solid ground, and PCE inflation essentially remained steady,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley. “But a rate cut next week remains a longshot. And while there’s plenty of time for the economic picture to change before the September FOMC meeting, the numbers have been trending in the Fed’s direction.”

The Federal Reserve gave an important clue Wednesday that it will likely cut its benchmark lending rate in the coming months. While the central bank said it will continue to hold rates at current levels, Fed officials are now wary of any risks surrounding America’s labor market, which has long been a pillar of strength for the economy, according to their latest policy statement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked up inflation’s recent progress in his post-meeting news conference, saying “the second quarter’s inflation readings have added to our confidence, and more good data would further strengthen that confidence.” He also conveyed that since the job market seems to be back to a pre-pandemic normal, any additional cooling could be concerning for the Fed. Powell also doubled down on his point that determining when to cut rates will be “a very difficult judgement call.” There are consequences both if the Fed cuts too soon, and if it cuts too late.

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Weekly Mortgage Report – July 25, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 22:24:45 +0000

Rates Essentially Unchanged; Both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales Softer than Expected

Mortgage rates increased 1 basis point from last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released July 24^th. Although they essentially remained flat from last week, they have decreased nearly half a percent from their peak earlier this year. Despite these lower rates, buyers continue to pause, as reflected in tumbling new and existing home sales data.

Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 19, 2024. “Mortgage rates continued to ease, with the 30-year fixed rate dipping to the lowest level since February 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications were up, driven by conventional and FHA application activity, as some borrowers took the opportunity to act. Furthermore, the conventional refi index was at its highest level since September 2022.” Added Kan, “Purchase applications decreased as ongoing affordability challenges persist with rates at their current levels and with home-price appreciation still strong in many markets.”

Sales of new US homes unexpectedly declined to a seven-month low in June as the mix of stubbornly high mortgage rates and prices deterred prospective buyers. Contract signings on new single-family homes decreased 0.6% to a 617,000 annual pace, following a nearly 15% drop in May that was the largest in two years, according to government data released Wednesday. The latest figures follow a topsy-turvy first half of the year, with sales gaining ground throughout the spring before slumping in May by the most in nearly a year. Thirty-year mortgage rates have dipped below 7% in recent weeks, but remain double what they were at the end of 2021, encouraging many builders to offer sales incentives such as buying down customers’ mortgages.

Existing-home sales faded 5.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million. Sales also slumped 5.4% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price bounced 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900, the second straight month it reached an all-time high and the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 3.1% from the previous month to 1.32 million at the end of June, or the equivalent of 4.1 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. “We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

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Weekly Mortgage Report – July 18, 2024

Cassidy Holst — Thu, 18 Jul 2024 21:35:28 +0000

Rates At Lowest Point Since Mid-February Amid Continuing Signs of Cooling Economy

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since mid-March, dropping 12 basis points from last week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released July 18^th. Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction and the economy remains resilient, two positive incremental signs for the housing market. However, homebuyers have yet to respond to lower rates, as purchase application demand is still roughly 5 percent below where it was in the Spring, when rates were approximately the same. This is not uncommon; sometimes as rates decline, demand weakens, and the apparent paradox is driven by buyers making sure rates don’t decline further before they decide to purchase.

Mortgage applications increased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2024. “Mortgage rates declined last week, as recent signs of cooling inflation and the increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year pulled them lower. The 30-year fixed rate declined to the lowest rate since March 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity was up 4 percent, driven by a 15 percent jump in refinances to the highest level since August 2022. Even with last week’s rate decline, purchase applications continue to lag, down 14 percent compared to last year’s pace.”

Retail sales were flat in June, defying Wall Street’s prediction of a decline amid signs of slowing in the US economy. Economists had expected a 0.3% decline in spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in May were revised higher to an increase of 0.3%, from a prior reading of 0.1%, according to Census Bureau data. June sales, excluding auto and gas, increased by 0.8%, above consensus estimates for a 0.2% increase. “This report shows that the consumer is holding in there well and maybe is not spending at the heady pace that we saw in the second half of last year but is certainly not falling off a cliff,” Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin told Yahoo Finance.

U.S. single-family homebuilding fell to an eight-month low in June amid higher mortgage rates, suggesting the housing market was likely a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses dropped to a one-year low last month, indicating that any anticipated rebound in activity, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September as expected, could be muted. “The reductions in interest rates that we expect later this year likely will be a mixed blessing for the residential construction sector overall, as we think the Fed will be responding to rising unemployment, which will curb the flow of new buyers,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

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