Mortgage Rates Rise, But Fall Buying Conditions Are Improving
Mortgage rates increased for the first time in the past six weeks, moving up four basis points last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released October 3rd. The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature. Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 27th. “Last week’s incoming data showed an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, even as inflation continues to decline. As a result, mortgage rates were up modestly” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. He added, “The news for the week was that more homebuyers appear to be entering the market. Purchase application activity was up for the week and increased more than 9 percent compared to last year at this time. Inventories of both new and existing homes have been increasing over the course of 2024, meaning that potential buyers have properties to look at and now have somewhat lower mortgage rates leading to better affordability.
Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday September 27th. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%. “All quiet on the inflation front,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Add today’s PCE Price Index to the list of economic data landing in a sweet spot. Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there’s no indication it’s falling off a cliff.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Monday the U.S. central bank would likely stick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward and was not “in a hurry” after new data boosted confidence in ongoing economic growth and consumer spending. “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell told a National Association for Business Economics conference, even though the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee kicked off its easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-percentage-point reduction at its Sept. 17-18 meeting. “We will do what it takes in terms of the speed with which we move,” Powell said, to try to keep inflation progressing towards the Fed’s 2% target while maintaining a low unemployment rate.
